This is looking like one of those rare beasts - a Conservative seat with no real UKIP threat but where the LDs will have some hopes. The local council have managed to alienate large parts of the electorate by proposing a local plan which threatens the green belt. The result in the latest council by election (in one of the safest Con village seats) was a 47% swing against them on a 48% turnout - and that was not even in the most threatened part of the parliamentary seat. Add in the fact that the local Con councillors overrode opposition from Lab and LD to increase their allowances by 20% and there is huge ammunition for opponents in Guildford.Normally I would say local issues melt away in a general election. This may be an exception, although it would be a shock if the LDs came through. A key issue may be whether UKIP can take (say) 12-15%, mainly from the Cons, in a seat where UKIP have no chance.